The war between Russia and Ukraine has put Vietnam in a position very complicated, which puts it in danger of the alliances in the last few decades has forged with the countries involved, in part to make sure a situation of protection and balance against China, the territorial power more important in east Asia, and in part to flourish economically.

For these and other reasons, Vietnam has decided to stay neutral in this conflict, although it has issued certain vows very controversial in the council of the united nations: to refrain in its condemnation of Russian aggression , and to vote against the exclusion of Russia’s Human Rights Council of the UN.

In this article, we will briefly discuss the ties of Vietnam with the different actors involved, explain the position of Vietnam with respect to the conflict, and finally we will explain the consequences that the war is having on Vietnam.

Relations of Vietnam, and Ukraine  

Vietnam and Ukraine began international relations in 1992 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since then, ties between the two countries have been friendly and cooperative. In 2011, both countries signed a cooperation agreement integral and, during his 30 years of diplomatic relations, have signed 50 bilateral agreement in various fields such as education, employment, protection, investment and customs cooperation. Trade between the two countries amounted to 720 billion in 2021.

Relations of Vietnam and Russia

Vietnam has maintained relations with Russia and its predecessor, the Soviet Union, from the 50’s of the TWENTIETH century. The Soviet Union supported Vietnam during the war against the united states, with arms, financial assistance, engineers, and military advisers. After the war, Vietnam and the Soviet Union maintained trade and political relations are close, considered the Soviet Union a country benefactor who gave economic aid and military to the southeast asian country. In addition, Russia was an important ally and counterweight of Vietnam against China. For example, when Vietnam invaded Cambodia to oust the power of Pol Pot, the Soviet Union supported the action, while China responded by invading northern Vietnam. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Vietnam has continued his good relations with the Russian federation, highlighting its dependence arms of Russia, who imported 90% of its war material from 1995 to 2014 and 68.4% from 2014 to 2021 (it is important to note that the US only lifted its embargo on arms sales to Vietnam in 2016). Finally, trade between the two countries amounted to 5500 millions of dollars in 2021.

Relations of Vietnam with the US and EU

Since the beginning of the decade of the 90’s, Vietnam has increased progressively its relations with the US, the European Union and the western world in general. These relations, including agreements of trade cooperation and strategic of all kinds, but especially important is the fact that keeping these good business relationships has been key to the impressive economic development of Vietnam in recent years. In addition, the proximity of Vietnam with the U.S. and the European Union to strengthen the negotiating capacity of Vietnam with respect to the conflict with China in the East Sea of Vietnam (known in China as the South China Sea).

Position of neutrality of Vietnam

During the past years, Vietnam has carried out what it calls “the diplomacy of the bamboo”, a plant flexible able to share the same root, but with the capability to materialize on the ground in different directions and position themselves in a solid manner with respect to causes considered fair. The idea of an international political pragmatic and low profile has allowed Vietnam to maintain strong ties of friendship and cooperation with countries as disparate as Russia, North Korea, the US, the European Union, Cuba, etc

Vietnam, in addition, has expressed its “policy of the 4 noes”: 1) not to join any military alliance, 2) do not stand on the side of a country against another, 3) do not give permission to any other country to establish military bases or use the territory of Vietnam to carry out military activities against other countries, and 4) do not use force or threaten to use force in international relations.

This policy of 4 noes has been employed in Vietnam recently during the visit of Kamala Harris to Vietnam, who sought the support of Vietnam to neutralize the behaviors “hostile” of China in the East Sea (known in China as the South China Sea).

Position of Vietnam with regard to the war between Russia and Ukraine

Leaders vietnamese have claimed their deep concern for this conflict, and her desire that the conflict be resolved through peaceful means, and its support for the need to respect international law and the sovereignty of the countries (see: source 1, source 2, source 3).

During the vote on the UN resolution condemning the aggression of Ukraine by Russia as of march 1, Vietnam was one of the 35 countries that abstained from voting in favor of or against the resolution. On the other hand, during the vote on 7 April, to suspend Russia’s human rights council of the UN, Vietnam was one of the 24 countries that voted against it (along with countries like China, Bolivia, Laos and Cuba). The reasons for some of these countries to vote against it is the fact that there is research in progress about the violations and abuses committed by Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, and to suspend Russia from this council before the conclusion of the investigation is precipitated and contributes to an increase in international tension.

Why is Vietnam not put unequivocally on the side of Ukraine?

In my opinion, this conflict puts Vietnam in a very uncomfortable position. From a commercial point of view and geo-strategically, if you put unequivocally on the side of Russia will lose the benefits of economic, political, and military, given its close relationship with the US, the EU and other western countries (in addition to being more susceptible to sanctions of the west). But if you put on the side of ukraine, Vietnam, you might have difficulties to import weapons (Russia has accounted for 80% of arms imports of the country from 1995 to 2021) and, what is more important, it may be that Russia ceases to be a close ally with which you have to pass to be more of an ally of China, with whom Vietnam has a territorial conflict, not solved in the East Sea (known in China as the South China Sea).

It is possible that the neutrality of the Vietnam allows it to maintain good relations with all the countries involved in the conflict, but it is also possible that this position weakens the ability to negotiate with other countries in the future (for example, what will other countries at the disposal of Vietnam if they are in conflict with, for example, China in the future?).  

Public opinion vietnamese

Various means have mencinado that you are reporting on the events of the war so surprisingly neutral, with media, traditional and online reporting a significant diversity of positions (apparently, during the annexation of Crimea in 2014, most of the media gave a vision rather pro-Russian). In addition, in the social network seems to have a debate of ideas with respect to what position should adopt Vietnam with regard to the war between Russia and Ukraine, which reflects that there is a significant diversity of opinion with respect to the conflict within the country.

Economic consequences for Vietnam

The economic consequences for Vietnam are noted with an increase in the prices of oil and gas, which is influencing also in an increase in the prices of electricity, gasoline, and an increase in inflation.

In addition, the Russian tourism is important for Vietnam, as the Russian tourists tend to spend half – 1600 dollars per stay, on top of what they spend people of many other countries. The Russian tourist is a beach tourism and its importance is especially evident in areas of the country such as Nha Trang or Mui Ne. It is expected that the number of Russian visitors will be drastically reduced due to penalties and banking.

In addition, Vietnam and Russia have projects on energy cooperation that have been paralyzed, and it is expected that certain routes of land transport that pass for Russia may not be used, which will mean an increase in traffic by sea, which can lead to an increase in transport prices as well as the existence of bottlenecks that extend the time of delivery of goods.

Finally, as we mentioned, the war in Ukraine can bring geopolitical changes that alter the equilibrium situation international. Some pointed out as one of the great difficulties of Vietnam that if Vietnam remains neutral and does not align clearly with none of the blocks, it can be assumed that Vietnam will see in a situation of weakness in the event of a conflict with a third country in the future.